Stevenage 1-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to The Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stevenage (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 3D 2L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium.
Cambridge United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Stevenage's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Cambridge United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Cambridge United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.24 xG and Cambridge United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.861 / defence 0.927 | Cambridge United attack 0.986 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.218. Data: 33 Stevenage games / 79 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 39% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 33%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Cambridge United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Cambridge United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 39% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stevenage 1.24 / Cambridge United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.861 / def 0.927 | Cambridge United attack 0.986 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cambridge United xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Cambridge United kick off?
Stevenage vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Stevenage vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Cambridge United part of?
Stevenage vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 39% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stevenage and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Cambridge United in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.99x) against Stevenage's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 33/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.59
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.36
1.11
Cambridge United xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.11 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 79 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 40W 21D 18L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 23W 15D 41L from 79 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambridge United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.03 PPG from 38 outings (23W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 7W 7D 24L from 38 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.91 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 40W 21D 18L in their last 79 games (1.78 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 23W 15D 41L in their last 79 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Cambridge United away?
Stevenage's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.03 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stevenage
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Cambridge United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 53% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Cambridge United in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 47% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 53% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Cambridge United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Cambridge United 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.24 xG and Cambridge United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Cambridge United attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 39% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 33%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Cambridge United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.