Stevenage vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bradford travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Bradford have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.20 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bradford, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Stevenage.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bradford have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Bradford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Bradford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.23 xG and Bradford 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.924 / defence 1.030 | Bradford attack 0.807 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.273. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 50 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 39% | Draw 31% | Bradford 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Bradford 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 39% | Draw 31% | Bradford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Stevenage 1.23 / Bradford 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.924 / def 1.030 | Bradford attack 0.807 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bradford xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bradford kick off?
Stevenage vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bradford part of?
Stevenage vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 39% chance of winning, Bradford a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stevenage and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 4W.
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Bradford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.20
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.29
1.06
Bradford xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.06 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 15D 16L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford's form line: 24W 11D 17L from 52 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.50 PPG, Bradford on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (14W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while Bradford have gone 24W 11D 17L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bradford away?
Stevenage's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.92 PPG; Bradford away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bradford in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Bradford 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Stevenage) and 58% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bradford in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 58% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Stevenage's recent games and 58% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bradford tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Bradford in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.