Stevenage vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 34%, yet in-form Bradford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bradford travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Bradford have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Bradford's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Stevenage's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bradford, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Stevenage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Bradford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bradford have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Bradford 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 37% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.99 xG and Bradford 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.984 / defence 0.870 | Bradford attack 0.843 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Bradford's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 56 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 34% | Draw 34% | Bradford 32%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Bradford 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Bradford 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 34% | Draw 34% | Bradford 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Stevenage 0.99 / Bradford 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.984 / def 0.870 | Bradford attack 0.843 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bradford xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bradford kick off?
Stevenage vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bradford part of?
Stevenage vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 34% chance of winning, Bradford a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stevenage and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
Record (7 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 5W.
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Bradford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
34%
2.92
34%
2.97
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.95
0.95
Bradford xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.95 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 15D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford's form line: 27W 13D 17L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.53 PPG, Bradford on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 10W 6D 12L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.16 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Bradford in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Bradford have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bradford away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Bradford away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bradford in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
5
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Bradford have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Bradford 2-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Bradford 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 54% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 57% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 54% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bradford tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Bradford in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.