Shrewsbury 1-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shrewsbury host Lincoln at Montgomery Waters Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shrewsbury — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Shrewsbury have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lincoln stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shrewsbury at 1.30 PPG versus Lincoln's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shrewsbury, 0 for Lincoln and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 45% versus Lincoln 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 40% | Lincoln 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.40 xG and Lincoln 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.978 / defence 0.977 | Lincoln attack 0.944 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.175. Lincoln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Shrewsbury games / 38 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 43% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 28%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Lincoln 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 40% | Lincoln 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 43% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Shrewsbury 1.40 / Lincoln 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.978 / def 0.977 | Lincoln attack 0.944 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lincoln xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Lincoln kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Lincoln part of?
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 43% chance of winning, Lincoln a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shrewsbury and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Lincoln?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Lincoln in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.98) and Lincoln's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.36
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.48
1.08
Lincoln xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.08 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shrewsbury come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 12D 15L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (11W 9D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.18 PPG, Lincoln on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shrewsbury's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.13 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Lincoln away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.61 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lincoln in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2024, when Lincoln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 3, Lincoln have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Lincoln 1-1 Shrewsbury.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 56%, Lincoln 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shrewsbury) and 56% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lincoln in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shrewsbury's games and 67% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 56% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Lincoln tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shrewsbury edge out Lincoln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Lincoln 1-0 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.40 xG and Lincoln 1.08 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Lincoln attack 0.94 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 43% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 28%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 40%, Lincoln 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lincoln's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.18 PPG, Lincoln 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.