Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rotherham and Plymouth meet at Aesseal New York Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rotherham's overall League One record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rotherham have posted 2W 3D 5L at Aesseal New York Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plymouth (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Plymouth arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Rotherham 2W, Plymouth 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rotherham half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 49% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Plymouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 0.96 xG and Plymouth 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.765 / defence 1.345 | Plymouth attack 1.336 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.147. Rotherham's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 78 Rotherham games / 33 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 17% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 63%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Plymouth 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 60% | Plymouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Aesseal New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 17% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Rotherham 0.96 / Plymouth 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.765 / def 1.345 | Plymouth attack 1.336 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Plymouth xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Plymouth kick off?
Rotherham vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Rotherham 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Rotherham vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Plymouth part of?
Rotherham vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 17% chance of winning, Plymouth a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rotherham and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Plymouth?
Record (5 meetings): Rotherham 2W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 3W.
What form are Rotherham and Plymouth in?
Rotherham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rotherham's attack at 0.77x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.34x) against Rotherham's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 78/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
17%
5.99
20%
4.89
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Rotherham xG
Total xG
3.02
2.06
Plymouth xG
5.99
17%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
13%
7.87
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
2%
47.12
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Rotherham and 2.06 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 78 outings, Rotherham have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 24W 18D 36L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 25W 17D 36L from 78 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Rotherham against 1.18 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rotherham have posted 1.50 PPG from 38 outings (16W 9D 13L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 10W 7D 21L from 38 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rotherham are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.28 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 24W 18D 36L in their last 78 games (1.15 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 25W 17D 36L in their last 78 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Plymouth away?
Rotherham's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.50 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rotherham have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rotherham
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 3, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 60%, Plymouth 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rotherham) and 50% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Rotherham's recent matches and 40% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rotherham vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Rotherham's matches and 50% of Plymouth's.
Do Rotherham and Plymouth tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rotherham defy the odds to beat Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Plymouth 1-0 at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 0.96 xG and Plymouth 2.06 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Plymouth attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 17% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 63%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Rotherham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.15 PPG, Plymouth 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rotherham win broke the near-deadlock. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.