Port Vale 3-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vale Park plays host to Port Vale versus Charlton in League One (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port Vale at home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Charlton have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Port Vale against 1.10 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Port Vale edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Port Vale 3–2 Charlton — a Port Vale win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 47% versus Charlton 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 50% | Charlton 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port Vale surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.53 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.037 / defence 1.082 | Charlton attack 0.937 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.135. Data: built from Port Vale's last 70 games and Charlton's last 70.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 45% | Draw 26% | Charlton 28%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.20 | Draw 3.79 | Charlton 3.55. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port Vale 40% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 27 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 45% | Draw 26% | Charlton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Port Vale 1.53 / Charlton 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.037 / def 1.082 | Charlton attack 0.937 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Charlton kick off?
Port Vale vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Charlton?
Port Vale 3 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Port Vale vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Charlton part of?
Port Vale vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 45% chance of winning, Charlton a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port Vale and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Port Vale vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 1.04x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.94x) against Port Vale's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 70 games and Charlton's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.79
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.68
1.15
Charlton xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.15 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 21W 15D 34L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 23W 22D 25L from 70 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Port Vale against 1.30 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 34 home games (13W 5D 16L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 8W 12D 14L from their last 34 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.51 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 66%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Charlton
Blended
Port Vale (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Port Vale vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Charlton in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 21W 15D 34L in their last 70 games (1.11 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 22D 25L in their last 70 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Charlton away?
Port Vale's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.29 PPG; Charlton away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Charlton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, Charlton have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 January 2024: Port Vale 3-3 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Charlton?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 41%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Port Vale) and 47% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 29% of games; Charlton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Port Vale's recent matches and 59% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Port Vale's recent matches and 65% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale and Charlton share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 27, as Port Vale and Charlton drew 3-3 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.53 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Charlton attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 45% | Draw 26% | Charlton 28%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 50%, Charlton 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.11 PPG, Charlton 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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