Plymouth 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Rotherham in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Rotherham's overall League One record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Rotherham are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rotherham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Rotherham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.78 xG and Rotherham 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.673 / defence 1.315 | Rotherham attack 0.827 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.085. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Plymouth games / 65 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 45%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Rotherham 2.22. Rotherham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rotherham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 50% | Rotherham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Plymouth 0.78 / Rotherham 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.673 / def 1.315 | Rotherham attack 0.827 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rotherham xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Rotherham kick off?
Plymouth vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Plymouth vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Rotherham part of?
Plymouth vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 24% chance of winning, Rotherham a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Plymouth and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Rotherham?
Record (4 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | Rotherham 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Rotherham in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Rotherham (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.67) and Rotherham's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.83x) against Plymouth's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 19/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
24%
4.12
30%
3.29
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.96
1.18
Rotherham xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.40
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.7 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.18 for Rotherham, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 65 games, going 17W 14D 34L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 1.28 PPG from 65 outings (22W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Plymouth against 1.28 for Rotherham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 11W 8D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (7W 8D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.14 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 17W 14D 34L in their last 65 games (1.00 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Rotherham away?
Plymouth's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.28 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rotherham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Rotherham?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, Rotherham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 69%, Rotherham 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Plymouth) and 31% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Plymouth's recent matches and 41% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Plymouth's recent games and 31% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Rotherham tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Rotherham 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.78 xG and Rotherham 1.18 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.67 / defence 1.31 against Rotherham attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 24% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 45%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Rotherham 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Rotherham 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.