Plymouth 3-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plymouth at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Accrington ST travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's home record at Home Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Accrington ST have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Plymouth are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 4–0 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 46% versus Accrington ST 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 47% | Accrington ST 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.57 xG and Accrington ST 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.211 / defence 0.671 | Accrington ST attack 0.753 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.216. Plymouth's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Plymouth games / 57 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 14%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 20% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 36% | xG Plymouth 1.57 / Accrington ST 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.211 / def 0.671 | Accrington ST attack 0.753 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Accrington ST xG
36%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Accrington ST kick off?
Plymouth vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Plymouth 3 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Plymouth vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Accrington ST part of?
Plymouth vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 61% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Plymouth and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Accrington ST?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Accrington ST in?
Plymouth (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.21) and Accrington ST's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.01
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.19
0.61
Accrington ST xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
3%
33.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.61 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 57 games, going 32W 12D 13L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.35 PPG from 57 outings (21W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 19W 4D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (7W 5D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.32 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 32W 12D 13L in their last 57 games (1.89 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 21W 14D 22L in their last 57 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Accrington ST away?
Plymouth's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.18 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Plymouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Plymouth
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2023, when Accrington ST 0-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Accrington ST?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 36%, Accrington ST 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Plymouth) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Accrington ST in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Plymouth's recent matches and 43% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Plymouth's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Accrington ST 3-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.57 xG and Accrington ST 0.61 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.21 / defence 0.67 against Accrington ST attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 61% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 14%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 47%, Accrington ST 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.