Peterborough 0-3 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Ipswich travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Peterborough — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 5W 2D 3L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weston Homes Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 League One matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ipswich's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ipswich are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ipswich trading profile (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 44% versus Ipswich 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Ipswich 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.10 xG and Ipswich 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.046 / defence 1.164 | Ipswich attack 1.152 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.115. Ipswich's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Peterborough games / 88 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 27% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 45%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Ipswich 2.22. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 40% | Ipswich 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 27% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Peterborough 1.10 / Ipswich 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.046 / def 1.164 | Ipswich attack 1.152 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Ipswich xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Ipswich kick off?
Peterborough vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Ipswich?
Peterborough 0 - 3 Ipswich.
Where is Peterborough vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Ipswich part of?
Peterborough vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 27% chance of winning, Ipswich a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Peterborough and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Ipswich in?
Peterborough (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Ipswich (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.62
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.60
1.50
Ipswich xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.50
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.50 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Peterborough come into this having played 88 games, going 32W 14D 42L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.80 PPG from 88 outings (43W 29D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Peterborough's home form reads 18W 10D 15L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.51 points per game from 43 outings (17W 14D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.75 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 32W 14D 42L in their last 88 games (1.25 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 43W 29D 16L in their last 88 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.49 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ipswich in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Ipswich?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Ipswich have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Peterborough 0-3 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 42%, Ipswich 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 40% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ipswich in 35%; Peterborough have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Peterborough's recent matches and 51% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 40% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Ipswich tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Peterborough 0-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.10 xG and Ipswich 1.50 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ipswich outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Ipswich attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 27% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 45%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Ipswich 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.