Peterborough 4-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Burton Albion have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Peterborough against 1.80 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Burton Albion in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Peterborough, 0 for Burton Albion and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2023, ended 5–2 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 44% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 56% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.99 xG and Burton Albion 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.406 / defence 0.895 | Burton Albion attack 0.769 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.127. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Peterborough games / 63 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 66% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 14%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Burton Albion 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 30% | Burton Albion 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 66% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Peterborough 1.99 / Burton Albion 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.406 / def 0.895 | Burton Albion attack 0.769 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Burton Albion xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Burton Albion kick off?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Peterborough 4 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Peterborough vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Burton Albion part of?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 66% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Peterborough and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Record (2 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.41) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.77x) against Peterborough's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.88
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.76
0.78
Burton Albion xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
53.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.78 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 32W 9D 22L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 20W 16D 27L from 63 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.94 PPG from 31 outings (18W 6D 7L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 8W 6D 17L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.16 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 32W 9D 22L in their last 63 games (1.67 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Burton Albion away?
Peterborough's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.94 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Peterborough
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 36%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 52% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 52% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Burton Albion 4-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.99 xG and Burton Albion 0.78 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.41 / defence 0.90 against Burton Albion attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 66% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 14%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 56%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.