Northampton 2-4 Bolton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bolton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 9 as Northampton welcome Bolton to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Northampton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Bolton have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Northampton) versus 1.30 (Bolton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Northampton, 1 for Bolton and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Bolton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Bolton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.95 xG and Bolton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.784 / defence 0.978 | Bolton attack 1.035 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.264. Northampton's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Northampton games / 53 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 26% | Draw 31% | Bolton 43%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Bolton 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 40% | Bolton 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 26% | Draw 31% | Bolton 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Northampton 0.95 / Bolton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.784 / def 0.978 | Bolton attack 1.035 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Bolton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bolton xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Bolton kick off?
Northampton vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Bolton?
Northampton 2 - 4 Bolton.
Where is Northampton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Bolton part of?
Northampton vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 26% chance of winning, Bolton a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bolton?
Record (2 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Northampton and Bolton in?
Northampton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
26%
3.85
31%
3.18
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.23
1.28
Bolton xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Northampton and 1.28 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 11D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Northampton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.72 PPG from 53 outings (26W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Northampton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 12W 6D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.72 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Bolton have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.62 PPG; Bolton away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Northampton or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bolton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Northampton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Northampton
2
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Bolton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Bolton 0-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Bolton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Northampton) and 38% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bolton in 35%; Bolton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 46% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Northampton's recent games and 38% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Bolton tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bolton in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Northampton 2-4 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.95 xG and Bolton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bolton outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.78 / defence 0.98 against Bolton attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 26% | Draw 31% | Bolton 43%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Bolton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.