Morecambe 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mazuma Stadium plays host to Morecambe versus Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Morecambe have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Morecambe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mazuma Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Morecambe are significantly better at Mazuma Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth away from home this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plymouth are 1.20 PPG clear of Morecambe in recent League One fixtures (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Morecambe — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Morecambe 62% and Plymouth 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 62% | Plymouth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.44 xG and Plymouth 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 1.170 / defence 1.226 | Plymouth attack 1.117 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.322. Data: 13 Morecambe games / 14 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 31% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 46%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 2.17. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Morecambe 33% | Plymouth 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 31% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Morecambe 1.44 / Plymouth 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 1.170 / def 1.226 | Plymouth attack 1.117 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Plymouth xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Plymouth kick off?
Morecambe vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Plymouth?
Morecambe 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Morecambe vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Plymouth part of?
Morecambe vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 31% chance of winning, Plymouth a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Morecambe and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Morecambe and Plymouth in?
Morecambe (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (1.17) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.12x) against Morecambe's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
31%
3.25
23%
4.38
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Morecambe xG
Total xG
3.25
1.81
Plymouth xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.88
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.81 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Morecambe's recent record stands at 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Morecambe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 0L across 13 games — 2.23 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Morecambe heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Morecambe have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 3W 2D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Morecambe are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.92 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Plymouth in 62%.
Defensively: Plymouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 8W 5D 0L in their last 13 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.40 PPG; Plymouth away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Morecambe or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Morecambe have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Plymouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Plymouth go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Morecambe
1
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 0, Plymouth have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Morecambe 1-3 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Morecambe see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 40%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Morecambe and 80% for Plymouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Morecambe keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Plymouth in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Morecambe's recent matches and 60% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Morecambe vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Morecambe's matches and 80% of Plymouth's.
Do Morecambe and Plymouth tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.44 xG and Plymouth 1.81 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 1.17 / defence 1.23 against Plymouth attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 31% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 46%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 62%, Plymouth 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.