Morecambe 0-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Morecambe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 23 as Morecambe welcome Fleetwood Town to Mazuma Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Morecambe have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Morecambe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Morecambe have posted 3W 3D 4L at Mazuma Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Morecambe are significantly better at Mazuma Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fleetwood Town stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Morecambe) versus 0.80 (Fleetwood Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Morecambe, 0 for Fleetwood Town and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Morecambe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Morecambe in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Fleetwood Town in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Morecambe 57% and Fleetwood Town 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Morecambe 62% | Fleetwood Town 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.81 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.916 / defence 1.424 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.954 / defence 1.681. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.297. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.681 — this is suppressing Morecambe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Morecambe games / 21 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 40% | Draw 22% | Fleetwood Town 38%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Fleetwood Town 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Morecambe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Morecambe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Morecambe 40% | Fleetwood Town 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 40% | Draw 22% | Fleetwood Town 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Morecambe 1.81 / Fleetwood Town 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.916 / def 1.424 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.954 / def 1.681 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Fleetwood Town xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town?
Morecambe 0 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 40% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Morecambe and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Morecambe 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Morecambe and Fleetwood Town in?
Morecambe (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Morecambe's attack at 0.92x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 1.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Morecambe's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
40%
2.52
22%
4.47
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Morecambe xG
Total xG
3.57
1.76
Fleetwood Town xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.76 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Morecambe have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 5W 4D 12L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Morecambe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fleetwood Town's form line: 5W 6D 10L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Morecambe on 0.90 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Morecambe have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Morecambe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Morecambe are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.71 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 76%.
Last 21 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 5W 4D 12L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Morecambe's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.20 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Morecambe and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Morecambe's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Morecambe
3
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Morecambe 4-2 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Fleetwood Town?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Morecambe at 40%, Fleetwood Town at 90%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Morecambe and 80% for Fleetwood Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Morecambe have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Morecambe's games and 90% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Morecambe's matches and 80% of Fleetwood Town's.
Do Morecambe and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Morecambe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Morecambe and Fleetwood Town drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.81 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.76 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Morecambe fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fleetwood Town landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.92 / defence 1.42 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.68, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 40% | Draw 22% | Fleetwood Town 38%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 62%, Fleetwood Town 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 0.90 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.