Lincoln 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Sunderland at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lincoln stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Sunderland have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.00 PPG, Sunderland 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lincoln have won 1, Sunderland 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lincoln in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sunderland in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 60% versus Sunderland 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 49% | Sunderland 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.17 xG and Sunderland 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.771 / defence 1.255 | Sunderland attack 0.960 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.212. Lincoln's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lincoln games / 38 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 30% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 43%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 50% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 30% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Lincoln 1.17 / Sunderland 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.771 / def 1.255 | Sunderland attack 0.960 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sunderland xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Sunderland kick off?
Lincoln vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Sunderland?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Lincoln vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Sunderland part of?
Lincoln vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 30% chance of winning, Sunderland a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lincoln and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Sunderland in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.77x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
30%
3.38
27%
3.65
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.63
1.46
Sunderland xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.46 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 8D 18L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 18W 9D 10L from 37 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lincoln.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 6W 7D 6L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 37 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 18W 9D 10L in their last 37 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.00 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Sunderland in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lincoln
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Lincoln 0-0 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Sunderland?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 53%, Sunderland 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lincoln) and 68% (Sunderland). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 42% of games; Sunderland in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lincoln's games and 58% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Lincoln's matches and 68% of Sunderland's.
Do Lincoln and Sunderland tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.17 xG and Sunderland 1.46 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Sunderland attack 0.96 / defence 1.34, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 30% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 43%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 49%, Sunderland 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.