Lincoln 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plymouth at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to LNER Stadium to face Lincoln in League One, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Lincoln (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at LNER Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Plymouth are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lincoln register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Plymouth in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lincoln 1W, Plymouth 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 56% versus Plymouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 45% | Plymouth 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.34 xG and Plymouth 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.902 / defence 0.886 | Plymouth attack 1.297 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.243. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Lincoln games / 63 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 35% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 39%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 70% | Plymouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 35% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lincoln 1.34 / Plymouth 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.902 / def 0.886 | Plymouth attack 1.297 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Plymouth xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Plymouth kick off?
Lincoln vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Plymouth?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Lincoln vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Plymouth part of?
Lincoln vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 35% chance of winning, Plymouth a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lincoln and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Plymouth in?
Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.90) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.30x) against Lincoln's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.93
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.76
1.43
Plymouth xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.43 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lincoln's recent record stands at 19W 17D 26L from 62 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 13L across 62 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lincoln heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 8W 11D 11L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.68 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 19W 17D 26L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 36W 13D 13L in their last 62 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.17 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Plymouth in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lincoln have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lincoln won 1-4 on 7 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lincoln
2
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 4, Plymouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Plymouth 1-4 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Plymouth?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 57%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lincoln) and 57% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lincoln's games and 60% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lincoln's recent games and 57% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Plymouth tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.34 xG and Plymouth 1.43 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Plymouth attack 1.30 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 35% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 39%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 45%, Plymouth 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.