Lincoln 1-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ipswich at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Ipswich meet at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lincoln's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 2W 8D 0L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ipswich arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lincoln have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ipswich in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lincoln lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Lincoln winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 56% versus Ipswich 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 44% | Ipswich 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.887 / defence 0.853 | Ipswich attack 1.328 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.120. Ipswich have an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Lincoln games / 70 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 34% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 39%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Ipswich 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lincoln 70% | Ipswich 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 34% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lincoln 1.16 / Ipswich 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.887 / def 0.853 | Ipswich attack 1.328 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ipswich xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Ipswich kick off?
Lincoln vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 2 January 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Ipswich?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Lincoln vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Ipswich part of?
Lincoln vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 34% chance of winning, Ipswich a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lincoln and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Ipswich?
Record (3 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 2W.
What form are Lincoln and Ipswich in?
Lincoln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lincoln's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.33x) against Lincoln's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 68/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.63
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.43
1.27
Ipswich xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.27 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lincoln's recent record stands at 20W 20D 28L from 68 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 14L across 68 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lincoln heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 9W 14D 11L from 34 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 14W 10D 10L across 34 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.62 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 20W 20D 28L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 32W 22D 14L in their last 68 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.21 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ipswich in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lincoln
1
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Ipswich have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 2 January 2023, when Lincoln 1-1 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 59%, Ipswich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lincoln) and 44% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 32%; Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lincoln's recent matches and 50% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lincoln's recent games and 44% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Ipswich tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Ipswich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Lincoln and Ipswich drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.27 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Ipswich attack 1.33 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 34% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 39%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 44%, Ipswich 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.