Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lincoln at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Burton Albion at LNER stadium in League One, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 22 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LNER stadium, Lincoln have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lincoln are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Lincoln, 5 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Lincoln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 51% versus Burton Albion 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 46% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 2.06 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.286 / defence 0.979 | Burton Albion attack 0.850 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.097. Lincoln carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 72 Lincoln games / 71 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Burton Albion 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 70% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: LNER stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Lincoln 2.06 / Burton Albion 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.286 / def 0.979 | Burton Albion attack 0.850 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burton Albion xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Burton Albion kick off?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 22 January 2026 at LNER stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Lincoln 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Lincoln vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at LNER stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Burton Albion part of?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 64% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lincoln and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
Record (9 meetings): Lincoln 4W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 5W.
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in?
Lincoln (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.29x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.93
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.98
0.91
Burton Albion xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
50.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.91 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 29W 20D 22L from 71 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 32L across 71 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lincoln by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 19W 9D 7L from 35 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 12D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 29W 20D 22L in their last 71 games (1.51 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 19W 20D 32L in their last 71 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Burton Albion away?
Lincoln's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.89 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Burton Albion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 22 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lincoln
0
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 5, Burton Albion have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2026, when Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 57%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Lincoln) and 46% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 31%; Lincoln have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lincoln's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Lincoln's recent games and 46% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Burton Albion 2-1 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 2.06 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Burton Albion attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 46%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.