Exeter City 0-4 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Cardiff at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Exeter City — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Exeter City are significantly better at St James Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cardiff — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Exeter City have won 0, Cardiff 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Exeter City in-play tendencies (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 45% versus Cardiff 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Cardiff 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.12 xG and Cardiff 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.793 / defence 1.130 | Cardiff attack 1.242 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.164. Exeter City's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cardiff have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 82 Exeter City games / 36 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 26% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 49%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Cardiff 2.04. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Exeter City 30% | Cardiff 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 26% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Exeter City 1.12 / Cardiff 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.793 / def 1.130 | Cardiff attack 1.242 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Cardiff xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Cardiff kick off?
Exeter City vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Cardiff?
Exeter City 0 - 4 Cardiff.
Where is Exeter City vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Cardiff part of?
Exeter City vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 26% chance of winning, Cardiff a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Exeter City and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are Exeter City and Cardiff in?
Exeter City (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.79) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
26%
3.84
25%
4.07
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.75
1.63
Cardiff xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.69
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.63 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Exeter City come into this having played 82 games, going 26W 20D 36L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.43 PPG from 82 outings (31W 24D 27L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.20 PPG, Cardiff on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Exeter City's home form reads 15W 11D 15L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.15 points per game from 41 outings (10W 17D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Exeter City are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.43 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 26W 20D 36L in their last 82 games (1.20 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 31W 24D 27L in their last 82 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Cardiff away?
Exeter City's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.37 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cardiff in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Exeter City
0
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 0, Cardiff have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Exeter City 0-4 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 46%, Cardiff 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Exeter City) and 51% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Exeter City's recent matches and 63% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Exeter City's recent games and 51% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Cardiff tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Exeter City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Exeter City 0-4 at St James Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.12 xG and Cardiff 1.63 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cardiff outscored their 1.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Cardiff attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 26% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 49%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Cardiff 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.20 PPG, Cardiff 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.