Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shrewsbury travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby in League One (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Derby have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Shrewsbury have recorded 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shrewsbury's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Derby have won 0, Shrewsbury 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Derby 0–1 Shrewsbury — a Shrewsbury win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Shrewsbury 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Shrewsbury 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.85 xG and Shrewsbury 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.346 / defence 1.024 | Shrewsbury attack 0.665 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.169. Derby carry an above-average attack rating of 1.346 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Derby's last 76 games and Shrewsbury's last 76.
Result probabilities: Derby 62% | Draw 22% | Shrewsbury 16%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.60 | Draw 4.53 | Shrewsbury 6.42. The model has a clear lean to Derby (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 60% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 32 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 62% | Draw 22% | Shrewsbury 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Derby 1.85 / Shrewsbury 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.346 / def 1.024 | Shrewsbury attack 0.665 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Derby (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Shrewsbury xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Derby vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Derby vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Derby 1 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Derby vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Shrewsbury part of?
Derby vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 62% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Derby vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Shrewsbury's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 76 games and Shrewsbury's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.53
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Derby xG
Total xG
2.64
0.80
Shrewsbury xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
2%
40.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Derby and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Derby and 0.80 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 39W 18D 19L from 76 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 38L across 76 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 21W 9D 7L from their last 37 home games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 9W 6D 22L across their last 37 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.96 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 39W 18D 19L in their last 76 games (1.78 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 27W 11D 38L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Shrewsbury away?
Derby's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.95 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Derby or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Derby
3
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Shrewsbury?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 0, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Shrewsbury 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 35% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 30% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Derby's recent games and 35% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Derby's recent matches and 65% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Shrewsbury finished level at 1-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.85 xG and Shrewsbury 0.80 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derby fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.35 / defence 1.02 against Shrewsbury attack 0.67 / defence 1.05, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 62% | Draw 22% | Shrewsbury 16%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Shrewsbury 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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