Derby 2-3 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Derby welcome Peterborough to Pride Park Stadium in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Derby — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Derby's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Peterborough have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (Derby) versus 2.10 (Peterborough). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Derby, 2 for Peterborough and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Derby 4–2 Peterborough — a Derby win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Peterborough 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 48% | Peterborough 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.51 xG and Peterborough 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.228 / defence 0.782 | Peterborough attack 1.183 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.122. Derby have a tight defence (rating 0.782), which is pulling Peterborough's projected output down. Data: built from Derby's last 69 games and Peterborough's last 70.
Result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.10 | Draw 3.67 | Peterborough 3.96. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Derby 1.51 / Peterborough 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.228 / def 0.782 | Peterborough attack 1.183 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Peterborough xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Derby vs Peterborough kick off?
Derby vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 January 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Peterborough?
Derby 2 - 3 Peterborough.
Where is Derby vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Peterborough part of?
Derby vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, Peterborough a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derby vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.23) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 69 games and Peterborough's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.67
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Derby xG
Total xG
2.55
1.04
Peterborough xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Derby and 1.04 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 69 games, going 35W 17D 17L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.74 PPG from 69 outings (36W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.77 PPG, Peterborough on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 19W 9D 6L across their last 34 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 34 away games (16W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Peterborough in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Derby vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 17D 17L in their last 69 games (1.77 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 36W 12D 21L in their last 69 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Peterborough away?
Derby's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.94 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Derby or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Peterborough in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 3, Peterborough have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2024: Derby 2-3 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Peterborough 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 56% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Derby's recent matches and 68% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Derby 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Derby 2-3 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.51 xG and Peterborough 1.04 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.23 / defence 0.78 against Peterborough attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 48% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 25%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Peterborough win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 48%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.77 PPG, Peterborough 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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