Derby 3-0 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Leyton Orient.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Leyton Orient in League One (matchday 44). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Derby are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Leyton Orient's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Leyton Orient have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Derby, 1.40 for Leyton Orient — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Derby edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Derby 3–0 Leyton Orient — a Derby win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Leyton Orient half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Leyton Orient 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Leyton Orient 36%). Note also that Leyton Orient surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Derby recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.24 xG and Leyton Orient 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.160 / defence 0.827 | Leyton Orient attack 0.917 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.166. Data: built from Derby's last 89 games and Leyton Orient's last 43.
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 29% | Leyton Orient 26%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.25 | Draw 3.44 | Leyton Orient 3.79. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derby 60% (last 10 home games) | Leyton Orient 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, matchday 44 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 29% | Leyton Orient 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Derby 1.24 / Leyton Orient 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.160 / def 0.827 | Leyton Orient attack 0.917 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Leyton Orient xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Leyton Orient FAQs
What time does Derby vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Derby vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Leyton Orient?
Derby 3 - 0 Leyton Orient.
Where is Derby vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Leyton Orient part of?
Derby vs Leyton Orient is a League One fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Derby and Leyton Orient will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Derby vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derby's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Leyton Orient's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Leyton Orient's attack (0.92x) against Derby's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 89 games and Leyton Orient's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.25
29%
3.44
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Derby xG
Total xG
2.13
0.88
Leyton Orient xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Leyton Orient Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Derby and 0.88 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby come into this having played 89 games, going 46W 21D 22L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 1.72 PPG from 89 outings (43W 24D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Derby against 1.72 for Leyton Orient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Derby's home form reads 26W 10D 8L across their last 44 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 1.59 points per game from their last 44 away games (19W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.25 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Leyton Orient in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Leyton Orient (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Leyton Orient Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 46W 21D 22L in their last 89 games (1.79 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 43W 24D 22L in their last 89 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Leyton Orient away?
Derby's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.00 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Derby or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Derby
0
Draws
0
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Leyton Orient H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Leyton Orient?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 2, Leyton Orient have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Leyton Orient last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Derby 3-0 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Leyton Orient?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, Leyton Orient 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 32% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 34%; Leyton Orient in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Leyton Orient Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Leyton Orient matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Derby's recent matches and 46% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Leyton Orient matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 32% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Leyton Orient matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Derby's recent matches and 68% of Leyton Orient's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Leyton Orient.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Leyton Orient 3-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.24 xG and Leyton Orient 0.88 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leyton Orient landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.16 / defence 0.83 against Leyton Orient attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 29% | Leyton Orient 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Leyton Orient 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.79 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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