Derby 2-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Charlton (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 0.70 PPG lead over Charlton (2.30 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Derby 0W, Charlton 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Charlton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.83 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.350 / defence 0.825 | Charlton attack 1.050 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Derby games / 76 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 56% | Draw 24% | Charlton 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Charlton 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Derby (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 40% | Charlton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 56% | Draw 24% | Charlton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Derby 1.83 / Charlton 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.350 / def 0.825 | Charlton attack 1.050 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Derby (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Charlton kick off?
Derby vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Charlton?
Derby 2 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Derby vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Charlton part of?
Derby vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 56% chance of winning, Charlton a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Derby and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Derby and Charlton in?
Derby (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.05x) against Derby's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 30/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.16
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Derby xG
Total xG
2.82
0.99
Charlton xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Derby and 0.99 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 29W 22D 25L from 76 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 31L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Derby against 1.30 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 21W 9D 7L from 37 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Charlton's away record stands at 11W 9D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Charlton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Charlton have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Charlton away?
Derby's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.95 PPG; Charlton away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Derby or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Charlton in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Charlton?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Charlton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 51% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Derby's games and 62% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Derby's recent games and 51% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Charlton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Charlton in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Charlton 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.83 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.35 / defence 0.82 against Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 56% | Draw 24% | Charlton 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.43 PPG, Charlton 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.