Derby 2-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Carlisle in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Carlisle's overall League One record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carlisle's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Derby's favour (2.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Derby, 0 for Carlisle and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 47% versus Carlisle 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 50% | Carlisle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 2.00 xG and Carlisle 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.241 / defence 0.771 | Carlisle attack 0.825 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.193. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Derby's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 91 Derby games / 45 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 66% | Draw 20% | Carlisle 13%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Carlisle 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Derby (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Carlisle 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 66% | Draw 20% | Carlisle 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Derby 2.00 / Carlisle 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.241 / def 0.771 | Carlisle attack 0.825 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Derby (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Carlisle xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Carlisle kick off?
Derby vs Carlisle kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Carlisle?
Derby 2 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Derby vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Carlisle part of?
Derby vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 66% chance of winning, Carlisle a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 0W.
What form are Derby and Carlisle in?
Derby (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Carlisle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.82x) against Derby's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 91/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
66%
1.50
20%
4.93
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Derby xG
Total xG
2.76
0.76
Carlisle xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
14%
7.39
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
55.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Derby and 0.76 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Carlisle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 91 outings, Derby have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 48W 21D 22L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Carlisle's form line: 27W 24D 40L from 91 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carlisle.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Derby have posted 2.02 PPG from 45 outings (27W 10D 8L).
On the road, Carlisle have gone 13W 10D 22L from 45 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.19 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 48W 21D 22L in their last 91 games (1.81 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 27W 24D 40L in their last 91 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Carlisle away?
Derby's home record (2.02 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.02 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Derby or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Carlisle in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Derby
0
Draws
0
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Carlisle?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Carlisle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Derby 2-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Carlisle?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 51%, Carlisle 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Derby) and 44% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Carlisle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Derby's recent matches and 49% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Derby's recent games and 44% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Carlisle tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Carlisle 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 2.00 xG and Carlisle 0.76 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.24 / defence 0.77 against Carlisle attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 66% | Draw 20% | Carlisle 13%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 50%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Carlisle's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.