Crewe 1-3 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 41 as Crewe welcome Fleetwood Town to Mornflake Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crewe — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Crewe at Mornflake Stadium this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Fleetwood Town have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fleetwood Town away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crewe at 0.30 PPG versus Fleetwood Town's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crewe have won 0, Fleetwood Town 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Fleetwood Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Fleetwood Town trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 47% versus Fleetwood Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 42% | Fleetwood Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.14 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.660 / defence 1.524 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.792 / defence 1.558. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.165. Crewe's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.558 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Crewe games / 38 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 29% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 42%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Fleetwood Town 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fleetwood Town at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Crewe 40% | Fleetwood Town 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 29% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Crewe 1.14 / Fleetwood Town 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.660 / def 1.524 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.792 / def 1.558 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fleetwood Town xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Crewe 1 - 3 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 29% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Crewe and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 1W.
What form are Crewe and Fleetwood Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crewe's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
29%
3.40
28%
3.51
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.54
1.41
Fleetwood Town xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Crewe and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Crewe and 1.41 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe's recent record stands at 6W 6D 26L from 38 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 18L across 38 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 0.63 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 4W 3D 12L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 2W 7D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.32 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 61%.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 6W 6D 26L in their last 38 games (0.63 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Crewe's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 0.79 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crewe and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Fleetwood Town won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crewe's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crewe
0
Draws
4
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Crewe have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Crewe 0-1 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 42%, Fleetwood Town 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Crewe) and 53% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 42% of games; Fleetwood Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Crewe's recent matches and 63% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Crewe's recent games and 53% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fleetwood Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Crewe 1-3 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.14 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.41 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fleetwood Town outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.66 / defence 1.52 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.56, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 29% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 42%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 42%, Fleetwood Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 0.63 PPG, Fleetwood Town 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.