Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet the head-to-head data favours Wrexham — this Crawley Town vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Wrexham at Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Wrexham — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Wrexham's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.10 PPG versus Wrexham's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Wrexham have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Crawley Town. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Crawley Town 1–2 Wrexham — a Wrexham win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Wrexham have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wrexham in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Wrexham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Wrexham 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.876 / defence 1.214 | Wrexham attack 0.766 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.186. Wrexham's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wrexham's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 26 games and Wrexham's last 28.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.75 | Draw 3.47 | Wrexham 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Wrexham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Wrexham | Competition: League One, matchday 30 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Crawley Town 1.13 / Wrexham 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.876 / def 1.214 | Wrexham attack 0.766 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Wrexham xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Wrexham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Crawley Town 1 - 2 Wrexham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Wrexham part of?
Crawley Town vs Wrexham is a League One fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Wrexham a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crawley Town and Wrexham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Crawley Town vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.88x the league average against Wrexham's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 26 games and Wrexham's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.47
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.24
1.10
Wrexham xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.10 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 29W 13D 32L from 74 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 41W 17D 16L across 74 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 15W 6D 14L from their last 35 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across their last 35 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.76 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Wrexham
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Wrexham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Wrexham
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 29W 13D 32L in their last 74 games (1.35 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 41W 17D 16L in their last 74 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Wrexham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.46 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Wrexham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wrexham have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2024, when Wrexham won Wrexham 4-1 Crawley Town.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Wrexham specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
4
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 0, Wrexham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Wrexham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Wrexham 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 37% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 31%; Wrexham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Wrexham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 49% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Wrexham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 37% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Wrexham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 71% of Wrexham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Crawley Town 1-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Wrexham attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Wrexham 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (74 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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