Crawley Town 3-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Northampton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Northampton at Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Northampton have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.10 PPG, Northampton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Northampton's (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Northampton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Crawley Town have won 1, Northampton 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Crawley Town 0–3 Northampton — a Northampton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Northampton trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Northampton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Northampton 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.006 / defence 1.332 | Northampton attack 1.032 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.182. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Northampton's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 44 games and Northampton's last 90.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 25% | Northampton 45%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.33 | Draw 4.07 | Northampton 2.20. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Northampton | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 25% | Northampton 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Crawley Town 1.28 / Northampton 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.006 / def 1.332 | Northampton attack 1.032 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Northampton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Northampton xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Northampton FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Northampton kick off?
Crawley Town vs Northampton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Crawley Town 3 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Crawley Town vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Northampton part of?
Crawley Town vs Northampton is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 30% chance of winning, Northampton a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crawley Town and Northampton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.01) and Northampton's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 44 games and Northampton's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
30%
3.33
25%
4.07
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.90
1.62
Northampton xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.89
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Northampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.62 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 90 games, going 32W 16D 42L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 1.22 PPG from 90 outings (29W 23D 38L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.24 PPG, Northampton on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 17W 9D 19L across their last 45 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Northampton have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 45 away games (11W 12D 22L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Northampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Northampton Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 32W 16D 42L in their last 90 games (1.24 PPG), while Northampton have gone 29W 23D 38L in their last 90 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Northampton away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.33 PPG; Northampton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won Northampton 3-0 Crawley Town.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Northampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Northampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Northampton 1-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 39% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Northampton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Crawley Town) and 53% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Northampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Northampton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Northampton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Crawley Town's recent games and 53% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Northampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 69% of Northampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Crawley Town run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Northampton 3-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Northampton 1.62 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Northampton landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.33 against Northampton attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 30% | Draw 25% | Northampton 45%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Northampton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Northampton's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.24 PPG, Northampton 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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