Crawley Town 0-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Birmingham meet at Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Crawley Town's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Crawley Town at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Birmingham have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Birmingham have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Birmingham arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Birmingham — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Birmingham 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Birmingham 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.964 / defence 1.314 | Birmingham attack 1.201 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.171. Birmingham have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Birmingham's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 19 games and Birmingham's last 18.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 26% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 50%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.78 | Draw 4.34 | Birmingham 1.98. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.28 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Birmingham are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Birmingham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Birmingham | Competition: League One, matchday 21 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 26% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Crawley Town 1.28 / Birmingham 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.964 / def 1.314 | Birmingham attack 1.201 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Birmingham xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Birmingham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Birmingham kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 23 December 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Birmingham?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Birmingham part of?
Crawley Town vs Birmingham is a League One fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 26% chance of winning, Birmingham a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Crawley Town and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.96x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (1.20x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 19 games and Birmingham's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
26%
3.78
23%
4.34
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.13
1.85
Birmingham xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
4%
23.98
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.85 for Birmingham, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 27W 10D 27L from 64 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 24L across 64 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.44 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 14W 5D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 9W 5D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Birmingham's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.31 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 27W 10D 27L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 26W 14D 24L in their last 64 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Birmingham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.52 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Crawley Town and Birmingham, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Birmingham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 0, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Birmingham 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Birmingham 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Birmingham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 55% of Birmingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Crawley Town's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 64% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Birmingham edge out Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Birmingham 1.85 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Birmingham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Birmingham attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 26% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 50%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 58%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Birmingham's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.42 PPG, Birmingham 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Birmingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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