Cheltenham 2-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cheltenham at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 46 sees Charlton travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cheltenham have posted 3W 6D 1L at Completely-Suzuki Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cheltenham) versus 1.90 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cheltenham, 0 for Charlton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Cheltenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 50% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 52% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.29 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.873 / defence 0.945 | Charlton attack 0.928 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.134. Data: 91 Cheltenham games / 91 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 43% | Draw 28% | Charlton 29%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 40% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 43% | Draw 28% | Charlton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cheltenham 1.29 / Charlton 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.873 / def 0.945 | Charlton attack 0.928 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Charlton xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Charlton kick off?
Cheltenham vs Charlton kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Cheltenham 2 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Cheltenham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Charlton part of?
Cheltenham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 43% chance of winning, Charlton a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cheltenham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Charlton?
Record (3 meetings): Cheltenham 2W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Cheltenham and Charlton in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.87) and Charlton's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.51
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.28
0.99
Charlton xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.99 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 91 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 27W 28D 36L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 33W 21D 37L from 91 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.20 PPG, Charlton on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.51 PPG from 45 outings (18W 14D 13L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 14W 10D 21L from 45 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 27W 28D 36L in their last 91 games (1.20 PPG), while Charlton have gone 33W 21D 37L in their last 91 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Charlton away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.51 PPG; Charlton away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 2, Charlton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 51%, Charlton 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cheltenham) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 27% of games; Charlton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 56% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cheltenham's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Charlton tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Charlton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Charlton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham and Charlton finished level at 2-2 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.29 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Charlton attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 43% | Draw 28% | Charlton 29%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 52%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.