Charlton 1-2 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 37%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Charlton welcome Fleetwood Town to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fleetwood Town stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Charlton have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fleetwood Town in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Charlton have won 2, Fleetwood Town 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 55% and Fleetwood Town 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Fleetwood Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.32 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.122 / defence 1.100 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.062 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.145. Data: 74 Charlton games / 74 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Fleetwood Town 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Fleetwood Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Charlton 1.32 / Fleetwood Town 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.122 / def 1.100 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.062 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fleetwood Town xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Charlton 1 - 2 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 36% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Charlton and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 1 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Charlton and Fleetwood Town in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.12) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.66
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.66
1.34
Fleetwood Town xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Charlton and 1.34 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 26W 18D 30L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Fleetwood Town's form line: 14W 27D 33L from 74 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.30 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.51 PPG from 37 outings (16W 8D 13L).
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 14D 16L from 37 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.26 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 65%.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 26W 18D 30L in their last 74 games (1.30 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 27D 33L in their last 74 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Charlton's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.51 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Fleetwood Town 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charlton) and 54% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Charlton's games and 68% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charlton's recent games and 54% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.32 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.34 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 36% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 37%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Fleetwood Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.30 PPG, Fleetwood Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.