Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charlton (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambridge United face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 42 as Cambridge United welcome Charlton to Cledara Abbey Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Cledara Abbey Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Charlton have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charlton — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Charlton have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Cambridge United's 0 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Charlton winning.
It is worth noting that Charlton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 41% versus Charlton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 39% | Charlton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.07 xG and Charlton 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.877 / defence 1.148 | Charlton attack 0.992 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.135. Data: 87 Cambridge United games / 87 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 31% | Draw 28% | Charlton 41%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 50% | Charlton 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 31% | Draw 28% | Charlton 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Cambridge United 1.07 / Charlton 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.877 / def 1.148 | Charlton attack 0.992 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Charlton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Charlton xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Charlton kick off?
Cambridge United vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Cambridge United 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Cambridge United vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Charlton part of?
Cambridge United vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 31% chance of winning, Charlton a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cambridge United and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Charlton?
Record (7 meetings): Cambridge United 0W | Draws 3 | Charlton 4W.
What form are Cambridge United and Charlton in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.61
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.37
1.29
Charlton xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.29 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambridge United come into this having played 87 games, going 20W 23D 44L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.45 PPG from 87 outings (32W 30D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Charlton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambridge United's home form reads 13W 13D 17L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.14 points per game from 43 outings (11W 16D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Cambridge United are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 20W 23D 44L in their last 87 games (0.95 PPG), while Charlton have gone 32W 30D 25L in their last 87 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Charlton away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.21 PPG; Charlton away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambridge United and Charlton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cambridge United's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cambridge United
3
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 0, Charlton have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 44%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cambridge United) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United have failed to score in 37% of games; Charlton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cambridge United's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Charlton tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Charlton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cambridge United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.07 xG and Charlton 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 31% | Draw 28% | Charlton 41%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 39%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.