Burton Albion 1-2 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Stevenage meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Burton Albion have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Stevenage have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Burton Albion, 1.80 for Stevenage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Stevenage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Stevenage 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Stevenage have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.13 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.924 / defence 1.019 | Stevenage attack 1.080 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 65 games and Stevenage's last 20.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 33% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.06 | Draw 3.52 | Stevenage 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 21 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 33% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Burton Albion 1.13 / Stevenage 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.924 / def 1.019 | Stevenage attack 1.080 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stevenage xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Stevenage kick off?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Burton Albion 1 - 2 Stevenage.
Where is Burton Albion vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Stevenage part of?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 33% chance of winning, Stevenage a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burton Albion and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Burton Albion vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.08x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 65 games and Stevenage's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.52
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.39
1.26
Stevenage xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.26 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 16D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.82 PPG from 65 outings (33W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 12W 10D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 32 away games (12W 12D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.35 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
Burton Albion (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 33W 19D 13L in their last 65 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.44 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stevenage in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Stevenage, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stevenage?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 47%, Stevenage 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 34% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 34%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games; Stevenage in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 44% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 34% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 78% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Burton Albion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.13 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Stevenage attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 65/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 33% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 39%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Stevenage 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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