Burton Albion 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Rotherham travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 2D 4L at Pirelli Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rotherham's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Burton Albion 0.80 PPG, Rotherham 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Rotherham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 55% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.45 xG and Rotherham 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.966 / defence 1.233 | Rotherham attack 1.021 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Data: 76 Burton Albion games / 75 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Rotherham 38%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Rotherham 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 40% | Rotherham 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Rotherham 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Burton Albion 1.45 / Rotherham 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.966 / def 1.233 | Rotherham attack 1.021 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Rotherham xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Rotherham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Rotherham part of?
Burton Albion vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 38% chance of winning, Rotherham a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Burton Albion and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Rotherham?
Record (5 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 2 | Rotherham 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Rotherham in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Rotherham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.97) and Rotherham's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
38%
2.67
25%
4.03
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.89
1.45
Rotherham xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.45 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion come into this having played 75 games, going 19W 22D 34L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 1.20 PPG from 75 outings (24W 18D 33L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.05 PPG, Rotherham on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burton Albion's home form reads 11W 9D 17L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.86 points per game from 37 outings (8W 8D 21L).
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.13 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 19W 22D 34L in their last 75 games (1.05 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 24W 18D 33L in their last 75 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Rotherham away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.14 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Rotherham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burton Albion's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Rotherham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 3, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Burton Albion 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Rotherham?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 51%, Rotherham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games; Rotherham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 40% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Rotherham tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Rotherham 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.45 xG and Rotherham 1.45 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Rotherham attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 76/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Rotherham 38%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 55%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.05 PPG, Rotherham 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.