Burton Albion 2-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Burton Albion take on Ipswich.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Ipswich travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 League One matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ipswich have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Burton Albion have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.00 xG and Ipswich 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Ipswich attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.887 / away 1.181. Data: 1 Burton Albion games / 1 Ipswich games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 27% | Draw 37% | Ipswich 35%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Ipswich 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 27% | Draw 37% | Ipswich 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Burton Albion 1.00 / Ipswich 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Ipswich attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.887 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ipswich xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Ipswich kick off?
Burton Albion vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Burton Albion vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Ipswich part of?
Burton Albion vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 27% chance of winning, Ipswich a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Burton Albion and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Ipswich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Ipswich in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Ipswich (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.65
37%
2.67
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.15
1.15
Ipswich xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.15 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Burton Albion are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ipswich.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Ipswich's attacking output running into Burton Albion's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ipswich in 100%.
Defensively: Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Ipswich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Burton Albion or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ipswich in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Ipswich have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Ipswich 4-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 100% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Burton Albion's recent games and 100% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Ipswich tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Ipswich 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Ipswich 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.00 xG and Ipswich 1.15 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Ipswich attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 27% | Draw 37% | Ipswich 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 0%, Ipswich 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Burton Albion arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.