Burton Albion 1-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Bolton in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 6W 2D 2L at Pirelli Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bolton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bolton away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Bolton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Bolton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 54% versus Bolton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 54% | Bolton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.11 xG and Bolton 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.126 / defence 1.267 | Bolton attack 1.084 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.118. Bolton's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 86 Burton Albion games / 87 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 27% | Draw 27% | Bolton 47%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 2.13. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 50% | Bolton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 27% | Draw 27% | Bolton 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Burton Albion 1.11 / Bolton 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.126 / def 1.267 | Bolton attack 1.084 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Bolton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Bolton xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Bolton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Bolton part of?
Burton Albion vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 27% chance of winning, Bolton a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Burton Albion and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Bolton?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 1 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Bolton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 1.13x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.08x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 86/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
27%
3.72
27%
3.77
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.65
1.54
Bolton xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.54 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 86 games, going 27W 20D 39L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.66 PPG from 86 outings (41W 20D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 18W 11D 14L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.37 points per game from 43 outings (17W 8D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.47 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Bolton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 27W 20D 39L in their last 86 games (1.17 PPG), while Bolton have gone 41W 20D 25L in their last 86 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Bolton away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.51 PPG; Bolton away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bolton in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 3-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Bolton?
From 10 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Bolton have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Bolton 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 51%, Bolton 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Burton Albion) and 42% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 30% of games; Bolton in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 42% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Burton Albion's recent games and 42% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Bolton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bolton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Burton Albion and Bolton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.11 xG and Bolton 1.54 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.13 / defence 1.27 against Bolton attack 1.08 / defence 0.73, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 27% | Draw 27% | Bolton 47%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Bolton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.