Burton Albion 1-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackpool at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Blackpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Blackpool meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Burton Albion have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Blackpool have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Blackpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Burton Albion, 2 for Blackpool and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Burton Albion 0–3 Blackpool — a Blackpool win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Blackpool — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Blackpool 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Blackpool 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.16 xG and Blackpool 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.961 / defence 1.348 | Blackpool attack 1.198 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.180. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Blackpool's projected output up. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 75 games and Blackpool's last 74.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 23% | Draw 22% | Blackpool 55%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 4.35 | Draw 4.49 | Blackpool 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Blackpool (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackpool are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 40% (last 10 home games) | Blackpool 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 23% | Draw 22% | Blackpool 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Burton Albion 1.16 / Blackpool 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.961 / def 1.348 | Blackpool attack 1.198 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Blackpool xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Blackpool FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Blackpool kick off?
Burton Albion vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Blackpool?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Burton Albion vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Blackpool part of?
Burton Albion vs Blackpool is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 23% chance of winning, Blackpool a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Burton Albion and Blackpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.96) and Blackpool's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (1.20x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 75 games and Blackpool's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
23%
4.35
22%
4.49
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
3.06
1.91
Blackpool xG
4.35
23%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
3%
29.25
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Blackpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.91 for Blackpool, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Blackpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 17W 20D 37L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Blackpool's form line: 30W 21D 23L from 74 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Blackpool are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 0.97 PPG from their last 38 home games (10W 7D 21L).
On the road, Blackpool have gone 14W 6D 18L from their last 38 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.43 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Blackpool in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Blackpool
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Blackpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Blackpool
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Blackpool Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 17W 20D 37L in their last 74 games (0.96 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 30W 21D 23L in their last 74 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Blackpool away?
Blackpool's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.97 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Blackpool in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Blackpool, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won Blackpool 3-0 Burton Albion on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
1
Draws
3
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Blackpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Blackpool?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Blackpool have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Blackpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Blackpool 1-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Blackpool 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burton Albion) and 50% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 40% of games; Blackpool in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Blackpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Blackpool matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 42% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Blackpool matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burton Albion's recent games and 50% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Blackpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 87% of Blackpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Blackpool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Burton Albion and Blackpool drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.16 xG and Blackpool 1.91 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Blackpool landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.96 / defence 1.35 against Blackpool attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 23% | Draw 22% | Blackpool 55%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Blackpool 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (74 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Blackpool's trading profile (74 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackpool arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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