Bromley vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Notts County at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bromley vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hayes Lane plays host to Bromley versus Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bromley have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bromley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bromley at Hayes Lane this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bromley are significantly better at Hayes Lane than their overall form suggests.
Notts County (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Notts County have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bromley, 1.00 for Notts County — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bromley 0W, Notts County 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bromley — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Notts County — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bromley 58% versus Notts County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bromley 53% | Notts County 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bromley 1.13 xG and Notts County 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bromley attack 0.745 / defence 1.380 | Notts County attack 0.679 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Bromley's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Bromley games / 9 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bromley 33% | Draw 30% | Notts County 37%. Fair-value odds: Bromley 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Notts County 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bromley 40% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bromley vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Hayes Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bromley 33% | Draw 30% | Notts County 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Bromley 1.13 / Notts County 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bromley attack 0.745 / def 1.380 | Notts County attack 0.679 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Notts County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bromley xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Notts County xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bromley vs Notts County kick off?
Bromley vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Hayes Lane.
Where is Bromley vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Hayes Lane.
What competition is Bromley vs Notts County part of?
Bromley vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bromley vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Bromley a 33% chance of winning, Notts County a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bromley vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bromley and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Bromley vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Notts County?
Record (4 meetings): Bromley 0W | Draws 3 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Bromley and Notts County in?
Bromley (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Notts County (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bromley's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.68x) against Bromley's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.31
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bromley xG
Total xG
2.35
1.22
Notts County xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bromley vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bromley and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bromley and 1.22 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bromley vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Bromley have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 26W 17D 12L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bromley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County's form line: 27W 12D 16L from 55 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Bromley against 1.69 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bromley have posted 2.04 PPG from 27 outings (15W 10D 2L).
On the road, Notts County have gone 12W 6D 9L from 27 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bromley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bromley are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.51 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bromley
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bromley and Notts County in coming into this match?
Bromley have gone 26W 17D 12L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bromley at home or Notts County away?
Bromley's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bromley at home: 2.04 PPG; Notts County away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Bromley or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bromley have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Notts County in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bromley have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bromley
3
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Notts County?
From 4 meetings on record, Bromley have won 0, Notts County have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bromley and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Bromley 1-1 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Bromley and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bromley 63%, Notts County 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bromley) and 44% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Notts County in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bromley home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bromley play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bromley's games and 48% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bromley vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bromley's recent games and 44% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bromley and Notts County tend to score early?
Bromley have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Notts County in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.