Bradford 0-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bradford host Bolton at Valley Parade in League One, Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bradford — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bradford at Valley Parade this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bradford at 1.30 PPG versus Bolton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bradford, 1 for Bolton and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Bolton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (93 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (93 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 55% versus Bolton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 48% | Bolton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.03 xG and Bolton 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.811 / defence 0.775 | Bolton attack 0.965 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Bradford's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Bradford games / 92 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Bolton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 40% | Bolton 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Semi-finals | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Bradford 1.03 / Bolton 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.811 / def 0.775 | Bolton attack 0.965 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bradford (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bolton xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Bolton kick off?
Bradford vs Bolton kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Bolton?
Bradford 0 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Bradford vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Bolton part of?
Bradford vs Bolton is a Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 37% chance of winning, Bolton a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bradford and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Bolton?
Record (3 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 2 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Bradford and Bolton in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.81x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.96
0.93
Bolton xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Bradford and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bradford and 0.93 for Bolton, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bradford's recent record stands at 44W 23D 26L from 93 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 40W 26D 27L across 93 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.67 PPG, Bolton on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bradford have managed 32W 9D 5L from 46 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bolton's away record stands at 15W 14D 17L across 46 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton in 60%.
Last 93 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Bolton in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 44W 23D 26L in their last 93 games (1.67 PPG), while Bolton have gone 40W 26D 27L in their last 93 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Bolton away?
Bradford's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.28 PPG; Bolton away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bradford or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bolton in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Bolton runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bradford's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bradford
2
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Bradford have won 0, Bolton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 50%, Bolton 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bradford) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bolton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bradford's games and 61% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bradford's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Bolton tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bolton in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Bradford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Bradford 0-1 at Valley Parade, Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.03 xG and Bolton 0.93 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bradford fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Bolton attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bolton's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.67 PPG, Bolton 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.