AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bolton (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AFC Wimbledon face Bolton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Bolton at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 3W 3D 4L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bolton have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Bolton's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AFC Wimbledon, 2 for Bolton and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bolton in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 36% versus Bolton 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 36% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG and Bolton 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.543 / defence 0.956 | Bolton attack 0.849 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.076. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.543 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 AFC Wimbledon games / 75 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 36% | Bolton 37%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Bolton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — AFC Wimbledon's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.56 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Bolton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 36% | Bolton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.69 / Bolton 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.543 / def 0.956 | Bolton attack 0.849 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bolton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bolton xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Bolton.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 27% chance of winning, Bolton a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bolton?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bolton in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.54x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
27%
3.71
36%
2.81
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.56
0.87
Bolton xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.9 | 18.3 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.6%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.87 for Bolton, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 18D 25L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.56 PPG from 75 outings (33W 18D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.52 PPG, Bolton on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 19W 8D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.24 points per game from 37 outings (12W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bolton in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 32W 18D 25L in their last 75 games (1.52 PPG), while Bolton have gone 33W 18D 24L in their last 75 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Bolton away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.76 PPG; Bolton away: 1.24 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bolton in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bolton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Bolton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Bolton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 27%, Bolton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AFC Wimbledon) and 46% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 30% of games; Bolton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 60% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 46% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Bolton tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Bolton in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG and Bolton 0.87 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.54 / defence 0.96 against Bolton attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 36% | Bolton 37%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bolton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.52 PPG, Bolton 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.