Wrexham 1-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wrexham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wrexham host West Brom at Racecourse Ground in Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wrexham — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Racecourse Ground, Wrexham have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Brom stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Wrexham) versus 1.40 (West Brom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wrexham, 1 for West Brom and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wrexham trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
West Brom trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 66% versus West Brom 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | West Brom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.26 xG and West Brom 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 0.977 / defence 1.064 | West Brom attack 0.831 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.243. Data: 55 Wrexham games / 55 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 39% | Draw 30% | West Brom 31%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | West Brom 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Wrexham 80% | West Brom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 39% | Draw 30% | West Brom 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Wrexham 1.26 / West Brom 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 0.977 / def 1.064 | West Brom attack 0.831 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.10
West Brom xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs West Brom kick off?
Wrexham vs West Brom kicked off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Racecourse Ground.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs West Brom?
Wrexham 1 - 2 West Brom.
Where is Wrexham vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs West Brom part of?
Wrexham vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 39% chance of winning, West Brom a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wrexham and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and West Brom?
Record (2 meetings): Wrexham 0W | Draws 1 | West Brom 1W.
What form are Wrexham and West Brom in?
Wrexham (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. West Brom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wrexham's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.31
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.36
1.10
West Brom xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wrexham and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.10 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 21W 19D 15L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 17W 16D 22L from 55 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.49 PPG, West Brom on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 7W 4D 16L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.05 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wrexham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and West Brom in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 21W 19D 15L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while West Brom have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or West Brom away?
Wrexham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 1.56 PPG; West Brom away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 13 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wrexham's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Wrexham
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and West Brom?
From 3 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 0, West Brom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 13 October 2026, when Wrexham 1-2 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 78%, West Brom 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Wrexham) and 48% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: West Brom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Wrexham's games and 48% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Wrexham's recent games and 48% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and West Brom tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, West Brom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as West Brom defy the odds to beat Wrexham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Wrexham 1-2 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.26 xG and West Brom 1.10 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. West Brom outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against West Brom attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 39% | Draw 30% | West Brom 31%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, West Brom 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.49 PPG, West Brom 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.