West Ham 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 2 as West Ham welcome Charlton to London Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, West Ham have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. West Ham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at London Stadium, West Ham have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charlton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (West Ham) versus 0.90 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. West Ham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
West Ham in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 37% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 54% versus Charlton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 62% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.18 xG and Charlton 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Charlton attack 0.939 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.267. Data: 1 West Ham games / 47 Charlton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: West Ham 30% | Draw 31% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 60% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 30% | Draw 31% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG West Ham 1.18 / Charlton 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Charlton attack 0.939 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Charlton kick off?
West Ham vs Charlton kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Charlton?
West Ham 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is West Ham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Charlton part of?
West Ham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 30% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both West Ham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and Charlton in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
West Ham's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.20
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.55
1.37
Charlton xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are West Ham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for West Ham and 1.37 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 10W 10D 19L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 11W 11D 17L from 39 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.03 PPG, Charlton on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 8D 8L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.97 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Charlton in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Charlton have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Charlton away?
West Ham's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.16 PPG; Charlton away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
West Ham
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Charlton?
From 1 meetings on record, West Ham have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when West Ham 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Ham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 58%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (West Ham) and 37% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 32% of games; Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of West Ham's games and 58% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of West Ham's recent games and 37% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out West Ham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat West Ham 1-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.18 xG and Charlton 1.37 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 30% | Draw 31% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 62%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.03 PPG, Charlton 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.