West Brom 5-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Hull City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
Hull City have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Hull City arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — West Brom lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hull City — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (West Brom 36% | Hull City 34%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (West Brom 38% | Hull City 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.00 xG and Hull City 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.863 / defence 0.870 | Hull City attack 0.872 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.956. Data: 50 West Brom games / 50 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 41% | Draw 34% | Hull City 25%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Hull City 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 40% | Hull City 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 41% | Draw 34% | Hull City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG West Brom 1.00 / Hull City 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.863 / def 0.870 | Hull City attack 0.872 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: West Brom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Hull City xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Hull City kick off?
West Brom vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Hull City?
West Brom 5 - 2 Hull City.
Where is West Brom vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Hull City part of?
West Brom vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 41% chance of winning, Hull City a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both West Brom and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): West Brom 2W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are West Brom and Hull City in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.86) and Hull City's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.87x) against West Brom's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
41%
2.47
34%
2.92
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
West Brom xG
Total xG
1.73
0.72
Hull City xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are West Brom and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for West Brom and 0.72 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 16D 16L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.18 PPG from 50 outings (16W 11D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for West Brom against 1.18 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 12W 10D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.92 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Hull City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 18W 16D 16L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Hull City have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Hull City away?
West Brom's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.84 PPG; Hull City away: 1.12 PPG.
Have West Brom or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hull City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 6, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Hull City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (West Brom) and 28% (Hull City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for West Brom and 24% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Hull City in 40%; West Brom have failed to score in 28% of games; Hull City in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of West Brom's recent matches and 28% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of West Brom's recent games and 24% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Hull City tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Hull City in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Hull City 5-2 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.00 xG and Hull City 0.72 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hull City outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Hull City attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 41% | Draw 34% | Hull City 25%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 38%, Hull City 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.40 PPG, Hull City 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.