Watford 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Watford at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Watford vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Vicarage Road to face Watford in Championship, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Watford (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Watford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Watford have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vicarage Road — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hull City have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Hull City have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Watford against 1.30 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Watford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Watford 49% versus Hull City 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Watford 52% | Hull City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Watford 1.79 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Watford attack 1.155 / defence 1.007 | Hull City attack 1.165 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.143. Hull City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Watford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Watford games / 67 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Watford 48% | Draw 23% | Hull City 29%. Fair-value odds: Watford 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 3.45. Watford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Watford are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Watford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Watford 50% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Watford vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vicarage Road • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Watford 48% | Draw 23% | Hull City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Watford 1.79 / Hull City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Watford attack 1.155 / def 1.007 | Hull City attack 1.165 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Watford (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Watford xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hull City xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Watford vs Hull City kick off?
Watford vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Vicarage Road.
What was the final score in Watford vs Hull City?
Watford 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Watford vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Vicarage Road.
What competition is Watford vs Hull City part of?
Watford vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Watford vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Watford a 48% chance of winning, Hull City a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Watford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Watford and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Watford vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Watford and Hull City in?
Watford (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Hull City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Watford's attack rating (1.16) and Hull City's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.17x) against Watford's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 21/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Watford Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.33
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Watford xG
Total xG
3.13
1.34
Hull City xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Watford vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Watford and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Watford and 1.34 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Watford vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Watford come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 11D 33L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Watford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.19 PPG from 59 outings (20W 10D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Watford against 1.19 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Watford's home form reads 8W 3D 18L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Watford are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.03 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Watford
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Watford and Hull City in coming into this match?
Watford have gone 15W 11D 33L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 10D 29L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Watford at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Watford at home: 0.93 PPG; Hull City away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Watford have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Watford
4
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Watford have won 3, Hull City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Watford and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Hull City 0-0 Watford.
Who has won more matches between Watford and Hull City?
Watford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Watford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Watford 55%, Hull City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Watford) and 38% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 34%; Watford have failed to score in 31% of games; Hull City in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Watford home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Watford play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Watford's recent matches and 38% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Watford vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Watford's recent games and 38% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Watford and Hull City tend to score early?
Watford have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hull City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Watford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 22, as Watford and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.79 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Watford fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Hull City attack 1.17 / defence 1.26, drawn from 21/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Watford 48% | Draw 23% | Hull City 29%, with Watford to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 52%, Hull City 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Watford's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Watford 0.95 PPG, Hull City 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Watford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.