Swansea 3-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bristol City make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bristol City's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bristol City's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Swansea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 41% versus Bristol City 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 48% | Bristol City 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.83 xG and Bristol City 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.887 / defence 1.120 | Bristol City attack 1.010 / defence 1.901. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.094. Bristol City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.901 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Swansea games / 31 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 51% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 26%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Bristol City 3.85. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 40% | Bristol City 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 51% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Swansea 1.83 / Bristol City 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.887 / def 1.120 | Bristol City attack 1.010 / def 1.901 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Swansea (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bristol City xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Bristol City kick off?
Swansea vs Bristol City kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Bristol City?
Swansea 3 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Swansea vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Bristol City part of?
Swansea vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 51% chance of winning, Bristol City a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Swansea and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Bristol City?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 0 | Bristol City 0W.
What form are Swansea and Bristol City in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bristol City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.89) and Bristol City's defence rating (1.90), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (1.01x) against Swansea's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 29/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.37
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Swansea xG
Total xG
3.07
1.24
Bristol City xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Swansea and 1.24 for Bristol City, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 8D 12L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bristol City's form line: 10W 6D 13L from 29 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Swansea against 1.24 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Bristol City have gone 4W 2D 8L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.34 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City in 69%.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 10W 6D 13L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Bristol City away?
Swansea's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.57 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Swansea or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bristol City in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won 3-0 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Swansea
2
Draws
3
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Bristol City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Bristol City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Swansea 1-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Bristol City?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 36%, Bristol City 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Swansea and 86% for Bristol City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 29% of games; Bristol City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Bristol City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Swansea's recent matches and 71% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Swansea's matches and 86% of Bristol City's.
Do Swansea and Bristol City tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bristol City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Bristol City 3-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.83 xG and Bristol City 1.24 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Bristol City attack 1.01 / defence 1.90, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 51% | Draw 23% | Bristol City 26%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 48%, Bristol City 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.21 PPG, Bristol City 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.