Sunderland 2-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Derby at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.50 PPG, Derby 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 43% versus Derby 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 47% | Derby 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.92 xG and Derby 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.056 / defence 0.792 | Derby attack 0.853 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.062. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sunderland's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Sunderland games / 7 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 66% | Draw 21% | Derby 13%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Derby 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 20% | Derby 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 66% | Draw 21% | Derby 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Sunderland 1.92 / Derby 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.056 / def 0.792 | Derby attack 0.853 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Derby xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Derby kick off?
Sunderland vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Derby?
Sunderland 2 - 0 Derby.
Where is Sunderland vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Derby part of?
Sunderland vs Derby is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 66% chance of winning, Derby a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Derby in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Derby (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.76
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.63
0.72
Derby xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
51.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.72 for Derby, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland's recent record stands at 21W 8D 24L from 53 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 31W 8D 14L across 53 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sunderland heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 13W 2D 11L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 13W 4D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.66 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Derby in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 21W 8D 24L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Derby have gone 31W 8D 14L in their last 53 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.58 PPG; Derby away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derby in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sunderland
0
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Derby have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Derby 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Derby?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 38%, Derby 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sunderland) and 54% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Derby in 42%; Sunderland have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sunderland's recent matches and 42% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sunderland's recent games and 54% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Derby tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Derby 2-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.92 xG and Derby 0.72 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.06 / defence 0.79 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 66% | Draw 21% | Derby 13%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 47%, Derby 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Sunderland winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.