Stoke City 0-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Ipswich meet at bet365 Stadium in Championship (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stoke City's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stoke City's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ipswich have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Ipswich are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Stoke City, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Stoke City 0–2 Ipswich — a Ipswich win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Stoke City half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 42% versus Ipswich 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 41% | Ipswich 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.86 xG and Ipswich 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.607 / defence 0.964 | Ipswich attack 0.963 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.176. Stoke City's attack rating of 0.607 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Stoke City's last 71 games and Ipswich's last 25.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 28% | Draw 31% | Ipswich 40%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.55 | Draw 3.18 | Ipswich 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stoke City's last 10 home games and Ipswich's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 30% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 26 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 28% | Draw 31% | Ipswich 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Stoke City 0.86 / Ipswich 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.607 / def 0.964 | Ipswich attack 0.963 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ipswich xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Ipswich kick off?
Stoke City vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 January 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Stoke City 0 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is Stoke City vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Ipswich part of?
Stoke City vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 28% chance of winning, Ipswich a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stoke City and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Stoke City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (0.96x) against Stoke City's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 71 games and Ipswich's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.18
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.95
1.09
Ipswich xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.09 for Ipswich, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stoke City's recent record stands at 21W 18D 32L from 71 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 44W 20D 7L across 71 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stoke City heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 10W 8D 17L from their last 35 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 19W 11D 5L across their last 35 away games, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stoke City are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.10 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
Stoke City (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Stoke City vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 21W 18D 32L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 44W 20D 7L in their last 71 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.09 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ipswich in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Stoke City and Ipswich, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 10 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Ipswich?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 0, Ipswich have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 March 2026: Stoke City 3-3 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 34%, Ipswich 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stoke City) and 49% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 43%; Stoke City have failed to score in 49% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Ipswich matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Stoke City's recent matches and 49% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stoke City's recent games and 49% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Stoke City's recent matches and 77% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Stoke City and Ipswich drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.86 xG and Ipswich 1.09 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ipswich landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.61 / defence 0.96 against Ipswich attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 28% | Draw 31% | Ipswich 40%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 41%, Ipswich 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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