Stoke City 0-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Stoke City take on Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bournemouth make the trip to bet365 Stadium to face Stoke City in Championship, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stoke City have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 5W 1D 0L this season (6 games, 2.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at bet365 Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Stoke City are significantly better at bet365 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth's overall Championship record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 6 games (83%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Bournemouth are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Stoke City — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 58% versus Bournemouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 50% | Bournemouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.90 xG and Bournemouth 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.146 / defence 0.916 | Bournemouth attack 0.833 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.104. Bournemouth's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Stoke City games / 12 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 33% | Draw 37% | Bournemouth 30%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Bournemouth 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 50% | Bournemouth 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 33% | Draw 37% | Bournemouth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Stoke City 0.90 / Bournemouth 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.146 / def 0.916 | Bournemouth attack 0.833 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Bournemouth xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Bournemouth kick off?
Stoke City vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Bournemouth?
Stoke City 0 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Stoke City vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Bournemouth part of?
Stoke City vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 33% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Stoke City and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stoke City and Bournemouth in?
Stoke City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stoke City's attack at 1.15x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.83x) against Stoke City's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
37%
2.69
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.74
0.84
Bournemouth xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 14.8 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.84 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 6W 3D 3L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 8W 4D 0L from 12 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stoke City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Stoke City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 8W 4D 0L in their last 12 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Bournemouth away?
Stoke City's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 2.67 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stoke City
0
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 0, Bournemouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Bournemouth 2-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Stoke City) and 17% (Bournemouth) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Stoke City and 17% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bournemouth in 83%; Bournemouth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stoke City's recent matches and 17% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stoke City's recent games and 17% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.90 xG and Bournemouth 0.84 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.15 / defence 0.92 against Bournemouth attack 0.83 / defence 0.73, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 33% | Draw 37% | Bournemouth 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 50%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.