Stoke City 0-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stoke City at 38%, yet in-form Blackpool provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stoke City vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Blackpool travel to bet365 Stadium to take on Stoke City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackpool — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Blackpool's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Blackpool are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stoke City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Blackpool in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stoke City, 0 for Blackpool and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Stoke City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Blackpool trading profile (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 52% versus Blackpool 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 48% | Blackpool 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.34 xG and Blackpool 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.047 / defence 1.366 | Blackpool attack 0.891 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.067. Data: 33 Stoke City games / 34 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 38% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 36%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Blackpool 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Blackpool (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 60% | Blackpool 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 38% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Stoke City 1.34 / Blackpool 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.047 / def 1.366 | Blackpool attack 0.891 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Blackpool xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Blackpool kick off?
Stoke City vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Blackpool?
Stoke City 0 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Stoke City vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Blackpool part of?
Stoke City vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 38% chance of winning, Blackpool a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stoke City and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackpool?
Record (1 meetings): Stoke City 1W | Draws 0 | Blackpool 0W.
What form are Stoke City and Blackpool in?
Stoke City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Blackpool (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Blackpool's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Blackpool's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.82
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Blackpool xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.30 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stoke City's recent record stands at 12W 8D 13L from 33 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 13L across 33 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.33 PPG, Blackpool on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.18 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
Blackpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Blackpool away?
Stoke City's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.27 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Blackpool in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Blackpool runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting Blackpool specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stoke City
0
Draws
2
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackpool?
From 4 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 2, Blackpool have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Blackpool 1-0 Stoke City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stoke City at 53%, Blackpool at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Stoke City) and 47% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Blackpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Stoke City's games and 80% of Blackpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stoke City vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Stoke City's recent games and 47% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Blackpool tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackpool defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.34 xG and Blackpool 1.30 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.05 / defence 1.37 against Blackpool attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 38% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 36%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Blackpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 48%, Blackpool 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackpool's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.33 PPG, Blackpool 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.