Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 30 as Sheffield Wednesday welcome Wrexham to Hillsborough. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Wrexham — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Wrexham away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Wrexham's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Sheffield Wednesday's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sheffield Wednesday, 0 for Wrexham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 50% versus Wrexham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 54% | Wrexham 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 0.72 xG and Wrexham 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.567 / defence 1.438 | Wrexham attack 1.008 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.158. Sheffield Wednesday's attack strength of 0.567 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Sheffield Wednesday games / 29 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 15% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 59%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Wrexham 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Wrexham (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 40% | Wrexham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 15% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 0.72 / Wrexham 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.567 / def 1.438 | Wrexham attack 1.008 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Wrexham xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham?
Sheffield Wednesday 0 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 15% chance of winning, Wrexham a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham?
Record (1 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 0W | Draws 1 | Wrexham 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Wrexham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sheffield Wednesday's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
15%
6.89
26%
3.82
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.40
1.68
Wrexham xG
6.89
15%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
3%
36.92
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.68 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 16W 21D 37L from 74 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 37W 22D 15L across 74 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Wednesday heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 5W 12D 20L from 37 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 16W 11D 10L across 37 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.45 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Wrexham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 21D 37L in their last 74 games (0.93 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 37W 22D 15L in their last 74 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 0.73 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Wrexham in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
1
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Wrexham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Wrexham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 35% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 40%; Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 46% of games; Wrexham in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 46% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 35% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Sheffield Wednesday 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.72 xG and Wrexham 1.68 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.57 / defence 1.44 against Wrexham attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 15% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 59%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 54%, Wrexham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wrexham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.