Sheffield Utd 0-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sheffield Utd (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sheffield Utd face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Bramall Lane to face Sheffield Utd in Championship, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 24 January 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sheffield Utd's overall Championship record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Bramall Lane this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bramall Lane. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sheffield Utd are significantly better at Bramall Lane than their overall form suggests.
Hull City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hull City away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sheffield Utd. A 0.90 PPG lead over Hull City (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Sheffield Utd, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Hull City — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Sheffield Utd winning.
The historical record gives Sheffield Utd a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 47% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 53% | Hull City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.23 xG and Hull City 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.947 / defence 0.764 | Hull City attack 0.885 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.019. Sheffield Utd's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Sheffield Utd games / 74 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Hull City 5.00. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Utd are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Utd 10% | Hull City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.23 / Hull City 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.947 / def 0.764 | Hull City attack 0.885 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Hull City xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Sheffield Utd 0 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 48% chance of winning, Hull City a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Record (5 meetings): Sheffield Utd 4W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Hull City in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 0.95x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.89x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 28/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.12
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
1.92
0.69
Hull City xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 0.69 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 13D 32L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.23 PPG from 66 outings (21W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.23 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 12W 6D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.31 points per game from 32 outings (12W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 21W 13D 32L in their last 66 games (1.15 PPG), while Hull City have gone 21W 18D 27L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Hull City away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.31 PPG; Hull City away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won 0-3 on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 5, Hull City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 41%, Hull City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sheffield Utd) and 56% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Hull City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 56% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 56% of Hull City's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Hull City tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hull City in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sheffield Utd 0-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.23 xG and Hull City 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against Hull City attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 53%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.15 PPG, Hull City 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.