Sheffield Utd 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Utd at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Utd vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Derby travel to Bramall Lane to take on Sheffield Utd. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Utd stand at 2W 3D 3L from 8 Championship matches — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bramall Lane, Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 2W 4D 2L from 8 outings — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sheffield Utd 1.12 PPG, Derby 1.25 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Utd in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 50% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 62% | Derby 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.49 xG and Derby 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 1.364 / defence 1.392 | Derby attack 0.588 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.261. Sheffield Utd carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Sheffield Utd games / 8 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 45% | Draw 31% | Derby 24%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Derby 4.17. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Utd 75% | Derby 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 45% | Draw 31% | Derby 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.49 / Derby 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 1.364 / def 1.392 | Derby attack 0.588 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Derby xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Derby kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Derby part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 45% chance of winning, Derby a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Derby in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 1.36x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Sheffield Utd's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.24
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
2.52
1.03
Derby xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.03 for Derby, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Utd's recent record stands at 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 2L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Utd on 1.12 PPG, Derby on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Utd have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.75 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Derby in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Derby have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Derby away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.00 PPG; Derby away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sheffield Utd's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 4, Derby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Derby tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 75%, Derby 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sheffield Utd) and 25% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 50%; Derby in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 25% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sheffield Utd's recent games and 25% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Utd and Derby tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Derby in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Derby 1-0 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.49 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 / defence 1.39 against Derby attack 0.59 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 45% | Draw 31% | Derby 24%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 62%, Derby 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.12 PPG, Derby 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.