QPR 2-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 17 as QPR welcome Wigan to Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR at Loftus Road this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Loftus Road this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
QPR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Wigan in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 56% versus Wigan 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Wigan 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.42 xG and Wigan 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.101 / defence 0.897 | Wigan attack 1.067 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.107. Data: 61 QPR games / 15 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 45% | Draw 27% | Wigan 28%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Wigan 3.57. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: QPR 50% | Wigan 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Wigan | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 45% | Draw 27% | Wigan 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG QPR 1.42 / Wigan 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.101 / def 0.897 | Wigan attack 1.067 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: QPR (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Wigan xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Wigan kick off?
QPR vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Wigan?
QPR 2 - 1 Wigan.
Where is QPR vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Wigan part of?
QPR vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 45% chance of winning, Wigan a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both QPR and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Wigan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Wigan in?
QPR (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Wigan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.10x the league average against Wigan's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.77
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
QPR xG
Total xG
2.48
1.06
Wigan xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for QPR and 1.06 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
QPR's recent record stands at 27W 12D 22L from 61 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 14L across 61 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.52 PPG, Wigan on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, QPR have managed 14W 8D 8L from 30 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 18W 7D 5L across 30 trips, a 2.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.61 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Wigan in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 27W 12D 22L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Wigan have gone 32W 15D 14L in their last 61 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.67 PPG; Wigan away: 2.03 PPG.
Have QPR or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Wigan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Wigan runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
QPR
0
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Wigan?
From 2 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Wigan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Wigan 1-0 QPR.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Wigan 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (QPR) and 60% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Wigan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of QPR's games and 63% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of QPR's recent games and 60% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Wigan tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wigan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Wigan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Wigan 2-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.42 xG and Wigan 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Wigan attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 45% | Draw 27% | Wigan 28%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Wigan 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.52 PPG, Wigan 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.